AI productivity gains are closer to 10% than 10x

Key takeaways:

• AI adoption is up 65%, but median PR throughput rose just 8%.
• Coding is only ~16% of engineer time, so speeding it up barely moves overall throughput.
• To close the gap, target AI at non-coding bottlenecks, and track utilization, impact, and cost together.

Most engineering leaders I talk to are quietly worried they’re falling behind.

AI models and coding tools are launching constantly, often with claims of 3x or 10x productivity improvements. When their teams see more modest results, they assume something is wrong.

The concern is understandable. But in most cases, it’s the benchmark that’s wrong,  not the results.

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