Managing expectations on time estimates with probabilistic forecasting

Project stakeholders always want to know when it will be done. So, we provide a time estimate somehow. And when it takes longer, we start wondering how we can get time estimates right in the future. But, can we?

I believe that’s not the question we should be answering. Estimating is uncertain and the most likely outcome is that we will get it wrong. So why are we even trying?

In my opinion, the problem to solve is not how to improve our time estimations, but how to make people understand that whatever date we name is not a fixed deadline.

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